Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Significant resources is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its destination.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
