A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
